Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
